Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has difficult role

Significance

McCarthy has a difficult role within a Republican Party that remains beholden to former President Donald Trump but has elements that wish to maintain a degree of autonomy from him. The coming months, as the Democrats’ agenda moves through the House, will also test his legislative skills.

Impacts

• Republicans only need a net gain of five seats in the 2022 midterm elections to take control of the House.
• The redistricting process now beginning in all 50 states should result in more winnable seats for Republicans in 2022.
• McCarthy’s alignment with Trump appears sufficient to prevent any Republican challenge to his becoming Speaker.
• As Speaker, McCarthy would conduct constant conflict with the Biden White House on most issues, with China the main exception.