India- and Pakistan-run Kashmir will each grow tenser

Significance

In June, Khan’s Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, met senior political leaders from the part of Kashmir that Delhi administers. The Indian and Pakistani militaries earlier this year recommitted to a 2003 ceasefire at the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto India-Pakistan border that cuts through Kashmir.

Impacts

• The LoC ceasefire will come under increasing pressure.
• Unrest among their respective Kashmiri populations could distract India and Pakistan from their efforts to address the COVID-19 crisis.
• Heightened tensions in Pakistan-administered Kashmir will constrain the development of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects in the area.