External factors will prod Russia into climate action

Significance

This is still tentative planning but it indicates the Kremlin is being spurred into action by looming curbs on high-carbon products in China and the EU, Russia's key export markets. Russia has so far resisted calls for more ambitious commitments.

Impacts

• Siberian forest fires will focus public attention on the environment, if not global warming.
• Blame for the wildfires, as with other environmental problems, will be weaponised in elite infighting.
• The government is interested in developing cheap, green hydrogen.
• A pilot carbon emissions trading scheme in Sakhalin could be scaled up to other parts of Russia.