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Lithuania will try to fend off migrants from Belarus

Wednesday, August 11, 2021

Significance

Only eight came in March. The numbers rose markedly after the West's angry reaction in May to Belarus's diversion of an international flight to detain an opposition activist. This supports the assumption that strongman Alexander Lukashenka is using refugee flows to harass Lithuania, a major supporter of the Belarusian opposition, and the EU.

Impacts

  • Lithuania’s handling of the migrant crisis will damage its image and prestige.
  • The crisis could have some favourable social effects if the government increases social spending to ease social tensions.
  • Lithuania will improve its infrastructure for handling migrant inflows.
  • Insecurity, not ideology, will drive policy: Lithuania will not become like Hungary, trumpeting a traditional view of ‘Christian’ Europe.

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