Outside actors will take a cautious approach to Haiti

Significance

The formation of a unity government under interim Prime Minister Ariel Henry may stave off a downward political spiral temporarily. However, other challenges -- including mounting gang violence, the COVID-19 pandemic and severe food shortages brought on by drought and natural disasters -- will be difficult to address, even with international assistance.

Impacts

• Foreign actors will push for early polls, seeing them as the best path out of the crisis, despite domestic calls for a longer transition.
• Foreign actors will find it easier to offer assistance to Haiti under a government that has been legitimated through elections.
• Washington’s stake in stabilising Haiti is tied to preventing an influx of asylum seekers to the United States.
• Washington will push for answers in the case of Moise’s murder, partly because Haiti’s government believes US citizens were involved.