Clashes among federal powers will intensify in Brazil

Significance

Bolsonaro has been increasing his attacks on senators leading a Senate-led inquiry into his administration’s handling of COVID-19 and on members of the Supreme Court and the TSE, due to mounting opposition to Bolsonaro’s plan to reinstate paper ballots in next year’s election.

Impacts

• New evidence by the Senate inquiry may increase popular pressure for the Lower House to launch an impeachment process.
• Bolsonaro will continue to increase his support for and reliance on parties of the centre-right and right in Congress to block impeachment.
• Bolsonaro will sustain allegations of fraud in 2018 and potential fraud in 2022 as a diversionary tactic in the short term.