Mozambique’s northern conflict will enter new phase

Significance

The troops arrived amid delays in the deployment of a planned Southern African Development Community (SADC) intervention force and uncertainties over how the different military initiatives will align.

Impacts

• Foreign military intervention and investments in counter-insurgency will reinforce the ruling FRELIMO party.
• Factional infighting within FRELIMO over who should succeed President Felipe Nyusi will increase.
• The peace process with RENAMO risks unravelling unless renewed progress can be made quickly.