US midterm elections pose challenges for Democrats

Significance

At present, Republicans need to gain only five seats to take control of the House of Representatives and just one to control the Senate. Awareness that the party holding the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections is driving tactics among both Democrats and Republicans.

Impacts

• Republicans are likely to rely on law and order issues that have proved politically successful for them in the past.
• Republicans will link Democratic 'softness' on illegal immigrants to rising crime and Biden’s approach to Mexican border security.
• Securing a Republican Congress may well lead Donald Trump to commit to running for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.