Italy’s next government rests on Draghi’s fortunes

Significance

This has put Salvini under pressure, though it has not weakened his support for Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Support for Draghi suggests the League is becoming a more moderate party, which could help FdI consolidate support on the far right ahead of the next election, currently scheduled for 2023.

Impacts

• The prospects of an amalgamation between the League and Forza Italia are strong, and would boost the former’s centrist credentials.
• While Five Star Movement support for Draghi is unreliable, its MPs do not want a general election as many of them would lose their seats.
• An unforeseen crisis, such as an uncontrollable wave of illegal migrants, would play into the hands of the right-wing parties.