South Africa graft battle will prove larger than Zuma

Significance

The ruling comes in a broader context of pervasive corruption throughout the South African state and within the ruling ANC, and intensified official efforts to counter it.

Impacts

• The prison sentence and Zuma’s reaction to it will be a test of Zuma’s support in the ANC and the wider population.
• Ramaphosa’s grip on the ANC has tightened, but fear of censure will remain a powerful source of internal party resistance to reform.
• The ruling may improve confidence in the judiciary at a time when some individual judges and cases have been matters of concern.