EU's oil products ban will hurt Belarusian economy

Significance

EU sanctions from June 24 ban purchases of Belarusian petroleum products and potash fertilisers, though restrictions on the latter are partial. Together with Minsk's retaliatory exit from the EU's Eastern Partnership, they are another step in the seemingly unstoppable deterioration in relations.

Impacts

• Opposition figures want tougher sanctions; those inside Belarus worry more about economic consequences.
• Refinancing risks will be muted as long as Moscow is prepared to underwrite debt.
• Aside from potash exemptions, sanctions loopholes will be too small to help exporters.