Tensions will undermine US-Mexico cooperation

Significance

The meetings follow a period of increased strain in the bilateral relationship, over the US arrest, and subsequent release, of former Mexican Defence Minister General Salvador Cienfuegos. They also come amid a surge in undocumented migration, one of several long-standing issues that will increase tensions.

Impacts

• The more affable tone of US-Mexican relations under Biden will not alter long-standing US drug and migration control priorities.
• US engagement with, and funding for, Mexican human rights and anti-corruption NGOs could foster tensions with the AMLO administration.
• AMLO’s poor record of containing criminal violence and his enduring aversion to coercive law enforcement will test security cooperation.
• Poor security cooperation will damage both parties, making the rescue and redefinition of bilateral security cooperation crucial.