Sudan-South Sudan conflict in Abyei may remain frozen

Significance

The move comes amid heightened attention to the disputed border region after recent clashes in the area, and following calls by Sudan for the withdrawal of Ethiopian peacekeepers amid rising tensions with Addis Ababa.

Impacts

• Local officials in Abyei may intermittently lobby for a final settlement, but residents are unlikely to mobilise strongly behind this.
• International pressure for progress on the political front could instead aggravate tensions within Abyei and between the two countries.
• Poor transport infrastructure will remain a constraint on cross-border integration, and wider border demarcation will remain unresolved.