Balkanisation of the internet will rise

Significance

This intervention is an inevitable consequence of the maturing of the digital economy and the fact that countries have different regulatory preferences. China was the first to do so at scale, but even democratic governments are embracing ‘cyber sovereignty’. This is further fragmenting the internet, which no longer operates as a global open and interoperable resource.

Impacts

• International consensus on norms of state behaviour in cyberspace will prove elusive.
• Domestic political pressure to tackle tech monopolies is rising across all major markets.
• US control over technical institutions that maintain the internet is a serious concern in both Russia and China.