Sahel political instability can undercut terrorism ops

Significance

The attacks come amid a wave of political instability across the Sahel, with two coups taking place in Mali within the past year, one in Chad and an aborted coup in Niger.

Impacts

• Despite international opprobrium and sanctions, Mali’s junta looks set to lead the transitional government until March 2022.
• Escalating jihadist violence in the Sahel makes a French drawdown unlikely in the short term.
• Calls in Mali for the replacement of French forces with Russian forces are unlikely to gain endorsement from other G5 members.