Belarusian leader's actions reduce his options

Significance

Western states have refocused attention on Belarus in the wake of the Ryanair plane diversion, and Lukashenka has responded with increasing hostility.

Impacts

• Tsikhanouskaya will remain the personification of the protest movement, sustaining its lobbying presence in EU states.
• Lithuania and Poland will try to sustain the EU's focus on Belarus and stiffen its resolve.
• Minsk's curbs on the US diplomatic presence create practical obstacles to engagement.