New Venezuela talks bring hope of gradual progress

Significance

Norwegian-led dialogue efforts are an opportunity for Maduro and Guaido to navigate the lifting of devastating US economic sanctions and a long-term electoral opening.

Impacts

• Broader involvement including civil society groups would help overcome acute polarity and improve ‘buy in’ to any potential agreement.
• The new US government will strengthen Venezuelan opposition groups that emphasise electoral participation over abstention and regime change.
• Norway will aim to shield the talks from the leaks, irreconcilable demands and partisan media mobilisation that eroded previous processes.