Path to Scottish independence will be difficult

Significance

Having fallen one seat short of an absolute majority, the SNP will form a government with the Green Party, which also supports independence. After the election results, SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it is only “a matter of time” before Scotland holds another referendum on independence.

Impacts

• The UK government’s rejection of a second referendum risks fuelling support for Scottish independence.
• London's successful vaccine roll-out and economic support is unlikely significantly to shift support vis-a-vis Scottish independence.
• A referendum victory in favour of Scottish independence would likely undermine support for the Union in Wales and Northern Ireland.