Biden-Moon summit indicates a new realism in Seoul

Significance

The first was Japan’s prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, in April. While this priority sends a clear signal to Beijing, in each case there was also a substantial bilateral and regional agenda.

Impacts

• Beijing sees itself as targeted and may react tangibly.
• Since South Koreans mistrust China even more than Japan, Moon need not fear public opinion if relations with Beijing worsen.
• Pyongyang could respond with a missile launch.
• Closer trilateral cooperation with Tokyo, as Biden wants, will meet resistance at home and may have to await Moon’s departure from office.