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Al-Shabaab will entrench its gains in Somalia

Thursday, May 13, 2021

Significance

Already on the rise, al-Shabaab now also benefits from rising distraction among its domestic and international opponents, which may prolong efforts to defeat it by many years.

Impacts

  • Somali and allied forces may need to revise their overall counterterrorism strategy to account for contracting resources.
  • Even with sustained reforms, it may take years for Somali forces to develop capacity to assume AMISOM’s security responsibilities.
  • Recent splits within the security forces will set security sector reform efforts back significantly.

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