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Hopes for Cyprus solution now lie with external powers

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Significance

It was aimed at determining whether negotiations could soon restart on a Cyprus problem solution. The conference failed as no common ground was reached. It was doomed to fail thanks to unbridgeable positions and a move away from convergences on a federation. The Turkish side rejects a federation all together; the Greek side insists on undermining political equality.

Impacts

  • In the absence of a comprehensive solution, the areas that trigger tension could be compartmentalised and tackled individually.
  • The status quo on the island could become increasingly unsustainable as Turkey enhances its grip on the Turkish Cypriot community.
  • If no common ground is reached, the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus may have to change.
  • Turkey might resume hydrocarbons explorations in the waters off Cyprus, leading to a flare-up in the Eastern Mediterranean.
  • Security risks due to a fragile situation may prevent gas companies fulfilling their contractual obligations with the Republic of Cyprus.

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