Hopes for Cyprus solution now lie with external powers

Significance

It was aimed at determining whether negotiations could soon restart on a Cyprus problem solution. The conference failed as no common ground was reached. It was doomed to fail thanks to unbridgeable positions and a move away from convergences on a federation. The Turkish side rejects a federation all together; the Greek side insists on undermining political equality.

Impacts

• In the absence of a comprehensive solution, the areas that trigger tension could be compartmentalised and tackled individually.
• The status quo on the island could become increasingly unsustainable as Turkey enhances its grip on the Turkish Cypriot community.
• If no common ground is reached, the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus may have to change.
• Turkey might resume hydrocarbons explorations in the waters off Cyprus, leading to a flare-up in the Eastern Mediterranean.
• Security risks due to a fragile situation may prevent gas companies fulfilling their contractual obligations with the Republic of Cyprus.