While domestic and international attention is focused on insecurity in northern Cabo Delgado province, attacks by the Junta, which claims RENAMO’s leadership was illegitimately elected, persist in several central provinces. The lack of negotiation by President Filipe Nyusi’s government with the Junta, and Nyusi’s increasing closeness with Momade, risks aggravating the situation.
- Nyusi and the ruling FRELIMO will be highly reluctant to countenance the deployment of reintegrated RENAMO troops to Cabo Delgado.
- The intensification of FRELIMO’s succession struggle will likely see more hardline responses to both the Cabo Delgado and Junta crises.
- Increased development and humanitarian aid to ease the Cabo Delgado crisis may end up helping FRELIMO at the next elections.
- The Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM) could struggle to regroup after the death in February of its charismatic founder.