Third COVID wave calls for caution from Erdogan

Significance

Throughout April, new cases have exceeded 40,000 per day. The surge, which followed the easing of containment measures in March, was the third and largest spike in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Turkey, dwarfing those recorded during previous waves.

Impacts

• COVID-19 will bolster the opposition but alone is unlikely to reduce support for Erdogan and the AKP much, or weaken their grip on power.
• Economic activity could be weakened for months, via tourism, services and confidence effects, affecting jobs and income distribution.
• The pandemic could accentuate the impact of foreign policy tensions or straying from economic orthodoxy on the lira and financial stability.