Taliban may be coaxed back into Afghan talks

Significance

Talks are integral to US disengagement plans but look uncertain now that the Taliban say they will not attend. Insurgent leaders are divided: some say President Joe Biden's postponement of the final troop withdrawal from May to September is an unforgiveable breach of faith, while others are more open to persuasion.

Impacts

• US disengagement will involve shifting responsibility for Afghanistan to the UN and perhaps neighbouring states.
• Regional states such as China and Pakistan are aware of the risk of systemic implosion; hence their calls for orderly US disengagement.
• Since hostility to Ghani is the only thing holding his opponents together, his departure will lead to fragmentation, not unity.