Oromo-Amhara unrest will deepen Ethiopian instability

Significance

The conflict adds to the diverse security challenges facing Ethiopia and threatens fragile Amhara-Oromo relations within the ruling Prosperity Party and beyond.

Impacts

• With Amhara forces seen as the enemy by some in Oromia Zone, maintaining the peace will require the ongoing presence of federal forces.
• Discontent among Amhara leaders over targeted attacks on Amharas may lead to pressure for some concessions to Oromo opposition leaders.
• Failure to acknowledge the religious dimension of the unrest could further alienate locals in Oromia Zone.