The outlook for UK-EU relations is poor

Significance

They are intended to set the framework for the future economic relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU. However, they have become a source of deep political division and mistrust, exacerbating concerns about the future of their political and economic relationship.

Impacts

• A further deterioration in UK-EU trade relations would threaten to undermine peace and stability in Northern Ireland.
• Negative trade news is unlikely to shift opinions significantly on Brexit or support for Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
• UK hostility towards defence and security cooperation underpinned by EU institutional arrangements will remain strong.