Mozambique's northern crisis will enter new phase

Significance

Despite a drop in attacks earlier this year, the Islamist-inspired insurgency shows little sign of abating, while US diplomatic and military involvement in Mozambique’s counter-insurgency efforts has increased.

Impacts

• The government's Northern Integrated Development Agency (ADIN), focused on Cabo Delgado, will continue to underwhelm over the short term.
• New revelations and developments in the long-running ‘hidden debts’ scandal will be an important factor in the struggle to succeed Nyusi.
• Doubts have emerged over whether FRELIMO's elective congress will take place in 2022, or at all, which could heighten party tensions.