China will not shake reliance on imported food

Significance

Chinese governments have long placed a high premium on achieving food security by relying on the country’s own resources. However, demand and supply side pressures from rising incomes, urbanisation, resource shortages and environmental constraints present formidable challenges.

Impacts

• Food security concerns and tightening corn supplies will likely encroach on China’s bio-ethanol production, at least in the short term.
• Growing affluence will make livestock and meat the fastest-growing branches of agriculture.
• Recovery from the African swine fever epidemic will not return pork production to its previous peak level until around 2025.
• In the interim, consumers will seek alternative meat sources, such as sheep meat, beef and, most importantly, poultry.
• China will continue to rely heavily on imports of sugar, beef, sheep meat and milk products.