Iraq’s disputed Sinjar will be a long-term flashpoint

Significance

Iraq’s president on March 8 ratified a law mandating reparations for Yazidi women enslaved and trafficked by Islamic State (IS). However, efforts to improve the security situation in Yazidi-majority areas such as Sinjar are floundering, amid deep disputes between Baghdad, Erbil and Ankara.

Impacts

• Plans to boost federal-KRG cooperation in disputed border areas will focus on areas of stronger IS resurgence such as Diyala.
• Other minorities targeted by IS will push for reparations similar to those promised to Yazidis.
• Many Yazidis will remain displaced, and some will be unwilling to return while the YBS retains its dominant role.
• Returns and normalisation will depend on funds for infrastructure rebuilding and service provision, which have seen scant progress.
• If Ankara were to intervene directly in Sinjar, that would radically weaken the credibility of the government in Baghdad.