Russia-China economic imbalance will deepen

Significance

Despite high-level commitments, economic links do not correspond to the commitments to political cooperation expressed by Moscow and Beijing. The structure of trade and other economic relations is asymmetric and the failure of several promises and projects demonstrates that political support for bilateral commercial ventures is limited.

Impacts

• Cooperation with China will benefit dominant Russian players: state-owned enterprises and monopolies and well-connected private companies.
• Russia's role will grow in infrastructure projects linking China with European markets as Beijing makes more use of the Northern Sea Route.
• Competition in third-party markets for exports of arms and nuclear technology may negatively influence Russian-Chinese political ties.