US GDP is set for a rapid consumption-led rebound

Significance

Economic activity is likely to heat up rapidly as people spend some of the savings accumulated in 2020 and direct payments given to them by the federal government.

Impacts

• Domestic travel, hospitality and entertainment will rebound rapidly but longer-term demand could suffer from permanent behavioural changes.
• Supply chains have faced supply-side disruption and may face demand-side pressures as people return to offices, drive, and eat out more.
• Commodity production will be under pressure as demand for petroleum rises and the Biden administration restricts output on public land.