Guyana-Venezuela tensions over Essequibo will escalate

Significance

This marks a further escalation of tensions between the two countries, which have a long-standing territorial dispute. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is set to begin hearings on the dispute, ensuring that tensions will remain elevated into the medium term.

Impacts

• The dispute could play well domestically for Maduro given strong Venezuelan nationalist sentiments regarding Essequibo.
• Guyana will continue to receive oil revenues from the disputed territory during the ICJ process, boosting its economic prospects.
• CARICOM’s declared support for member state Guyana will further weaken Venezuelan influence in the Caribbean.