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Turkish rapprochement with West will be selective

Monday, February 1, 2021

Significance

The ‘exploratory’ meeting is the first between the NATO partners since 2016. It follows months of sabre-rattling in the Eastern Mediterranean, and takes place against the backdrop of other conciliatory signals Turkey has begun sending to the West and countries in its region.

Impacts

  • A recent law will bring home state-owned energy assets and subsidiaries abroad, in hopes of protecting against further Western sanctions.
  • More stable and predictable policies towards the West and regionally could do much to boost investor sentiment and support the fragile lira.
  • Domestic politics ahead of elections will make it very difficult to offer concessions on the Kurdish issue, at home or in Syria and Iraq.
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