Turkish rapprochement with West will be selective

Significance

The ‘exploratory’ meeting is the first between the NATO partners since 2016. It follows months of sabre-rattling in the Eastern Mediterranean, and takes place against the backdrop of other conciliatory signals Turkey has begun sending to the West and countries in its region.

Impacts

• A recent law will bring home state-owned energy assets and subsidiaries abroad, in hopes of protecting against further Western sanctions.
• More stable and predictable policies towards the West and regionally could do much to boost investor sentiment and support the fragile lira.
• Domestic politics ahead of elections will make it very difficult to offer concessions on the Kurdish issue, at home or in Syria and Iraq.