Abkhazia's elite fears ceding control to Russia

Significance

The wording, from a ruling on the August 2008 Georgian-Russian war, is stating the obvious but is nonetheless significant, coming from an international court. An agreement making Abkhazia and Russia a 'common space', if an unequal one, has raised fears in Georgia that the breakaway region will be quietly absorbed into the Russian Federation.

Impacts

• South Ossetia is likely to seek a similar framework agreement in hope of attracting Russian investment.
• Russian energy investment could create risks for the Enguri hydroelectric dam, informally shared by Abkhazia and Georgia.
• The Abkhaz diaspora in Turkey may be leveraged to encourage bilateral trade and reduce Russian economic dominance.