Somalia’s electoral crisis heads towards a precipice

Significance

These critics still refuse to participate in elections unless key electoral bodies are reformed to remove alleged pro-FGS bias.

Impacts

• Military posturing on all sides raises the risks that electoral disputes could spill over into armed violence.
• If partial elections do commence before his mandate expires, Farmajo will argue he is making progress despite his rivals’ intransigence.
• An attempt by the FGS to organise polls unilaterally in non-aligned regions such as Jubaland’s Gedo region would be politically explosive.