Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

Significance

Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties.

Impacts

• Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole.
• Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments.
• Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree.
• Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes.
• Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.