Niger power transition will be stable

Significance

With no candidate scoring more than 50%, the election now heads to a second round on February 21. Campaigning for the second round will run from January 29 to February 19. Following the elections on February 21, provisional results are expected by February 26.

Impacts

• The new president, whether Bazoum or Ousmane, will be keen to preserve strong ties with France, the EU and the United States.
• Rising insecurity will be a key feature for the next presidency.
• Maradi, Tillabery, Tahoua and Diffa regions will see rising numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons.