Unrest will mar Uganda’s elections

Significance

Following extended crackdowns on opposition forces, as well as sustained targeting of human rights organisations and critical media, the polls will be held in a climate of intense fear, especially in and around the capital, Kampala.

Impacts

• Uganda’s mounting dependence on foreign aid to balance its budget offers foreign donors some leverage over Museveni’s government.
• International condemnation of the human rights situation will likely intensify but stronger measures are unlikely barring a major outrage.
• Museveni’s increasing reliance on the security services will leave him ever more vulnerable to internal challenges from that source.