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Norms can undermine Middle East and Africa transitions

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Significance

Transitions following a peace agreement are typically seen as major opportunities for democratisation and new constitution making, and sometimes for national dialogue, reconciliation, transitional justice and institutional reform. Outcomes, however, are often disappointing.

Impacts

  • The peace agreement and transition framework in South Sudan may face mounting setbacks, bringing its credibility into question.
  • Civil society groups will struggle to get their views about transition heard.
  • International and local peacebuilding NGOs may suffer more than other organisations from aid cuts.
  • The Libya dialogue may aim for a limited outcome that prioritises a short transition to elections rather than a comprehensive transition.
  • Calls may grow for a new approach to reach a political settlement in Yemen, given the meagre results of the existing UN mediation approach.
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