North-west Nigerian insecurity faces new escalation

Significance

The claim that one of Boko Haram’s factions sponsored the Kankara attack reinforces fears that jihadist outreach to bandit groups is succeeding and that violence will grow in coming months.

Impacts

• Precautionary school closures will displace thousands of schoolchildren, and further disrupt educational access in one of the poorest zones.
• North-western governors will pressure Buhari for new targeted security funds, much of which will likely fall victim to fraud and corruption.
• Abuja’s opaqueness about security issues, coupled with worsening violence in the north-west, could undermine the ruling party in 2023 polls.