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Libya dialogue momentum is stalling

Friday, December 11, 2020

Significance

After deciding to hold elections on December 24, 2021, the LPDF’s political discussions have become bogged down over nominations to a new Presidency Council (PC) and Government of National Accord (GNA). On the military track of the dialogue, the ceasefire agreement between eastern and western groups has not been implemented. On the economic track, efforts to control oil revenues have led to personal disputes between National Oil Corporation (NOC) Chair Mustafa Sanalla and the Governor of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) Saddek Elkaber.

Impacts

  • Eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar has gone along with the dialogue but is ready to return to military action if he sees no benefits.
  • External actors could lose patience with the UN and launch their own initiatives.
  • Dialogue may be paused to consolidate gains before the proposed new UN Envoy to Libya, Nicolay Mladenov, takes his post.
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