Azerbaijan wins in Russian-enforced Karabakh deal

Significance

The Russian, Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents late on November 9 agreed an immediate truce for Nagorno-Karabakh that effectively hands Baku victory. Azerbaijan gains control of territories inside and outside Karabakh, some won by military force; others are still held by Armenians. It also gets an overland route to Turkey. The fall of the Shusha stronghold may have prompted the Karabakh Armenians to accept defeat.

Impacts

• Amid COVID-19 and the US election, international actors have little time to spend on the rights and wrongs of this conflict outcome.
• Moscow's line that this is "a victory for both sides" will gain no traction among Armenians.
• Turkey will increase diplomatic, trade and security cooperation with Azerbaijan.