Escalating insurgency pressures Mozambican government

Significance

Fears are growing that attacks could spread into surrounding provinces, after already expanding into neighbouring Tanzania.

Impacts

• New gas-related revenues might allow the government to recruit more private military companies (PMCs) over the short-to-medium term.
• The expansion of the insurgency, not least to Tanzania, will force belated increased bilateral and regional collaboration.
• Renewed direct budgetary funding by the EU to Mozambique will be a boon for the government but other donors are unlikely to follow suit.