Australia will seek more trilateral ties in Asia

Significance

This is the latest instance of development in Australia’s push to establish ‘minilaterals’ with other Indo-Pacific ‘middle powers’ that share strategic concerns over China’s growing assertiveness in Asia-Pacific, and over US staying power.

Impacts

• Emergence of new trilateral groupings could strain ASEAN centrality, and will change dynamics at ASEAN and ASEAN-plus meetings.
• The rollout of the regional supply resilience initiative will test ASEAN states’ support for trilaterals’ regional ambitions.
• China’s regional assertiveness will drive the creation of new trilaterals.
• It will be harder for ASEAN states to keep China onside economically if, geopolitically, they face choosing sides.
• Any reversion to more mainstream US foreign policy in Asia could reduce the impetus for nascent trilaterals.