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Energy estimates imply climate targets will not be met

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Significance

Under the IEA's baseline 'Stated Policies Scenario', global oil demand plateaus in the 2030s, but there is no significant decline thereafter.

Impacts

  • Upstream investment in oil will be needed to address natural decline, but uncertainty will grow over the financial viability of projects.
  • Rising use of electricity to deliver energy requires heavy investment in all aspects of the power system; insufficient spending is a risk.
  • To remain an energy transition destination fuel, the natural gas sector will have to retool as a decarbonised energy source.
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