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Russia reviews Karabakh priorities to remain relevant

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Significance

Russia previously focused on maintaining the status quo in the Armenian-Azerbaijani stand-off for want of better options, but changes in military control on the ground and Turkey's new assertiveness may force a change of attitude.

Impacts

  • While diplomacy continues, territorial advances and evidence of atrocities will make it difficult to ensure truces are adhered to.
  • Iran will offer to help mediate but will avoid further involvement if possible; no outcomes other than stability are good for it.
  • Relations between Armenia and Israel will suffer because of the latter's arms deliveries to Azerbaijan.

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