Russia reviews Karabakh priorities to remain relevant
Tuesday, October 27, 2020
Significance
Russia previously focused on maintaining the status quo in the Armenian-Azerbaijani stand-off for want of better options, but changes in military control on the ground and Turkey's new assertiveness may force a change of attitude.
Impacts
- While diplomacy continues, territorial advances and evidence of atrocities will make it difficult to ensure truces are adhered to.
- Iran will offer to help mediate but will avoid further involvement if possible; no outcomes other than stability are good for it.
- Relations between Armenia and Israel will suffer because of the latter's arms deliveries to Azerbaijan.