Trump would face stronger headwinds in second term

Significance

In some ways Trump has been a traditional Republican president, lowering taxes and pushing deregulation. Yet he has taken trade and foreign policy in a new direction, with mixed results. How his priorities might change in a second term, as well as his ability to pursue them, is an open question.

Impacts

• Trump’s relations with the Democrats would be frosty, limiting space for negotiation and compromise.
• The Democrats and Republicans would struggle to agree a wide-ranging infrastructure development package.
• Trump will continue to be averse to multilateralism abroad and heavy regulation at home.