Unclear strategy may upend Ivorian opposition chances

Significance

It remains unclear whether the main opposition candidate, former President Henri Konan Bedie (1993-99), will propose a boycott of the October 31 polls. Meanwhile, the state prosecutor last week filed fresh charges against former National Assembly Speaker and barred presidential candidate Guillaume Soro and 19 of his allies for alleged attempts to undermine state security.

Impacts

• Despite appealing to Ouattara not to run, it is almost certain Macron will recognise an Ouattara victory.
• Community leaders and peacebuilding groups could help ease the threat of major destruction to cocoa plantations amid intercommunal violence.
• Ouattara’s government will remain fearful of Soro’s ability to act as a spoiler and foment election-related unrest.