Libyan discontent could risk further destabilisation

Significance

Since late August both governments have been challenged by a wave of demonstrations protesting endemic corruption and deteriorating standards of living -- partly as a result of a blockade of oil exports since January by eastern authorities. Some rallies have been met with violence.

Impacts

• Protests and violent attempts to quash them are likely to shake what little faith ordinary Libyans retain in existing governance structures.
• Protesters may target key infrastructure -- including oil -- hoping to make their voices heard, risking another shock to the economy.
• Extremist groups, including Islamic State, could seek to exploit grievances underpinning the protests, recruiting vulnerable youth.