Belarus crisis to expand economic reliance on Russia

Significance

Protracted disputes over oil and gas pricing and supply volumes will now be resolved on Moscow's terms, and Lukashenka must gratefully accept the debt relief and terms on offer.

Impacts

• Russian debt refinancing will reduce the imperatives for economic reform.
• Russian state banks have been told to keep liquidity flowing to Belarusian banks to keep them afloat.
• Bilateral bank assistance is complicated by the Belarusian central bank placing Russian-owned Belgazprombank under temporary administration.